MU DIVISION

Question 53

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Question

Aaron has a box of 2024 coins. Each coin has a different probability of flipping heads, with the

i

th coin flipping heads with probability

i/2023

for

i=0,1,\ldots,2023

. Aaron selects a coin from the box uniformly at random, and flips that coin 24 times. It comes up heads on all 24 flips. Which of the following fractions is closest to the probability that the coin will come up heads on Aaron's 25th flip? Assume all flips of the coin are independent.

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Question

Aaron has a box of 2024 coins. Each coin has a different probability of flipping heads, with the

i

th coin flipping heads with probability

i/2023

for

i=0,1,\ldots,2023